Live · Intelligence · Thesis
Live spot prices. The gold-to-silver ratio. Central bank buying, de-dollarisation, and the 15 signals of the Great Reserve Reallocation — in one place.
Daily brief
Thesis G · ACTIVE · ACCELERATING (April 2026)
Governments are dumping US Treasuries and rotating directly into gold. This is a structural reorientation of the reserve system — not a cyclical rally.
Read the full thesis →Global FX reserves
≈ $12 trillion
Current gold allocation
15–17%
Shift to 20% =
$600 billion / ≈ 4,300 tonnes of new demand
Annual mine output
≈ 3,500 tonnes
The signal matrix
Each 25bp = DXY −0.8 to −1.2% direct, −2 to −4% with carry unwind.
Silver very cheap vs gold. Historical mean reversion opportunity.
Physical demand diverging from paper. Structural buyer.
Delivery stress rising. Below 50M oz = critical.
Rarest structural signal. CB buying overwhelms the dollar-gold inverse.
Underpins Thesis G. Regime change, not a cycle. April 2026: ACTIVE and ACCELERATING.
Lower starting base
Industrial demand floor: solar, EVs, AI data centres, semiconductors
Tiny investable market: $50–60 billion vs $27T Treasuries — 0.1% of global financial assets overwhelms it
No CB silver buying, so overflow comes from private investors priced out of expensive gold
Price targets
Base case (orderly, 3–5 years)
Gold $6,000–8,000
Silver $150–200
Ratio: 62:1 → 40:1
Bull case (structural break)
Gold $8,000–12,000
Silver $200–300
Ratio: CB allocation to 25%+
Decade target (full de-dollarisation, Yardeni)
Gold $10,000+
Silver $250+
Ratio: —
Daily brief
Prices, signal status, ratio, and the day's action through the lens of Thesis G.