The signal matrix · April 2026
15 signals. One framework.
The price moves because specific things change. These are the 15. Evaluated daily — green is firing, amber is watching, grey is dormant.
DXY < 98
Trigger: Dollar breaks 98
War premium exiting or dollar weakness becomes structural.
DXY > 101
Trigger: Dollar above 101
War escalating or Fed turning hawkish.
10Y yield < 4.0%
Trigger: Treasury yields break 4.0%
Rate cuts being priced in. Real yields falling. Strong buy for gold.
10Y yield > 4.5%
Trigger: Yields above 4.5%
Real yields too high for gold to compete.
Oil < $80 sustained
Trigger: Brent below $80 for weeks
Rate-cut path reopens within 2–4 weeks.
Oil > $110
Trigger: Brent above $110
Stagflation — bearish near-term, ultra-bullish long-term.
Ceasefire announced
Trigger: Formal ceasefire
Activates Thesis E — the Peace Dividend Trade.
BOJ rate hike
Trigger: BOJ raises above 0.75%
Each 25bp = DXY −0.8 to −1.2% direct, −2 to −4% with carry unwind.
Fed signals rate cut
Trigger: Dot plot or Powell signal
Strongest possible buy signal for gold and silver.
Warsh confirmed
Trigger: Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair
Breaks the 4D Chess thesis. Watch his first statements for hawk/dove bias.
Gold-Silver ratio > 75
Trigger: Ratio crosses 75
Silver very cheap vs gold. Historical mean reversion opportunity.
Shanghai premium > $10/oz
Trigger: SGE premium over LBMA
Physical demand diverging from paper. Structural buyer.
COMEX silver < 80M oz
Trigger: Registered silver drawdown
Delivery stress rising. Below 50M oz = critical.
DXY + Gold both rising
Trigger: Simultaneous rise (rare)
Rarest structural signal. CB buying overwhelms the dollar-gold inverse.
Reserve Reallocation active
Trigger: CBs dumping Treasuries for gold
Underpins Thesis G. Regime change, not a cycle. April 2026: ACTIVE and ACCELERATING.
Master reference
Key levels to watch.
Gold
- $6,000–6,300JP Morgan / Deutsche Bank year-end target
- $5,500–5,600January 2026 all-time high
- $5,000Key resistance
- $4,700Recovery target
- $4,250–4,400CRITICAL support
- $4,200200-day EMA
- $3,500Structural floor
Silver
- $120All-time high
- $90–97War peak zone
- $85Recovery target
- $65Support
- $50–60Structural floor
Gold / Silver Ratio
- 80+Silver very cheap — mean reversion opportunity
- 60–70Neutral
- 50Balanced
- 40Silver overvalued relative to gold
Daily brief
Get the matrix before breakfast.
Every morning, which signals flipped, which fired, what to watch today.