The Ratio · Live
Gold / silver.
One number. Everything to say.
Divide the gold price by the silver price. Above 75, silver is historically cheap. Below 50, gold is. The ratio has been the most reliable mean-reversion trade in precious metals for two centuries.
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Interpretation
Zones of the ratio.
Historical context
A two-century anchor.
For most of the 19th and early 20th century, the gold-silver ratio was fixed near 15:1 by bimetallic monetary systems. Since the end of silver's monetary role, the free-market ratio has averaged in the 50–60:1 range.
Extremes are tradeable. In 2020 the ratio hit 125:1 during the COVID panic — silver then tripled in 18 months while gold added 20%. In 2011 it compressed to 32:1 at the silver peak.
The Thesis G thesis argues that when central banks allocate toward gold, silver is the natural overflow: too small a market to absorb serious capital without violent price moves. The base-case target is a ratio compression to 40:1, which implies silver outperforming gold by roughly 50% from any given ratio above 60.