Learn Gold & Silver

A measure of the US dollar's strength against a basket of 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF). When DXY falls, gold typically rises because gold is priced in dollars — a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for non-US buyers.

The 10-year Treasury yield minus inflation (CPI). When real yields are negative, you're losing money holding bonds after inflation — making gold (which pays no yield but holds value) more attractive. Below 1.0% is bullish for gold.

When the Federal Reserve creates money to buy bonds, expanding the money supply. More dollars chasing the same goods = dollar debasement = gold rises. QE is the strongest possible macro driver for gold.

The opposite of QE — the Fed lets bonds mature without replacing them, shrinking the money supply. Theoretically bearish for gold, but if QT causes market stress, the Fed may be forced back to QE (which is gold's thesis).

Borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency (like the yen at 0.75%) and investing in a high-interest-rate currency (like the dollar at 5.25%). When this unwinds — especially on BOJ rate hikes — the dollar falls and gold rises. The BOJ carry trade is estimated at $500B+.

The Commodities Exchange in New York where gold and silver futures are traded. COMEX registered inventory is the physical metal available for delivery. When registered silver falls below 80 million ounces, it signals physical tightness.

The number of paper (futures) contracts divided by actual physical metal at COMEX. A ratio above 400:1 means there are 400 paper claims for every real ounce. Above 500:1 is historically extreme and signals potential delivery stress.

Gold price divided by silver price. Historical mean is around 55:1. Above 75:1 means silver is historically cheap relative to gold. Below 40:1 means silver is expensive. The ratio is the most reliable mean-reversion trade in precious metals.

Since 2022, central banks have bought 1,000+ tonnes of gold annually — the most in 55 years. In 2025, gold overtook US Treasuries as the largest share of global reserves. This is Thesis G — a structural shift, not a cycle.

Weekly CFTC report showing how hedge funds, banks, and speculators are positioned in futures markets. Extreme long positioning = crowded = contrarian bearish. Extreme short positioning = contrarian bullish. Our sentiment agent scores inversely to crowding.

The difference between gold/silver prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) vs COMEX/LBMA. A premium above $15/oz indicates strong physical demand in China that isn't reflected in Western paper markets. Above $40 is exceptional.

A cyclical move reverses when conditions change (Fed raises rates, inflation falls). A structural move is a permanent shift in the system (reserve currency reallocation, de-dollarisation). Thesis G argues gold's move since 2022 is structural, not cyclical.

When exchange margins on gold/silver futures are raised, leveraged traders are forced to sell to meet margin calls. This can create a sharp price drop unrelated to fundamentals — often the best buying opportunity.

The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. Set by the Federal Reserve. Higher rates = stronger dollar = headwind for gold. Lower rates = weaker dollar = tailwind for gold. The direction matters more than the level.

When investors buy shares of gold (GLD) or silver (SLV) ETFs, the fund buys physical metal. Sustained inflows = demand. Sustained outflows = paper selling. Interestingly, ETF outflows while central banks buy is a contrarian bullish signal.