Superpower 5 · Under the surface
Market Microstructure
COMEX positioning, delivery notices, lease rates, Shanghai premiums, paper-to-physical ratios. The plumbing that tells you what the price cannot.
01 · COMEX positioning (COT)
Managed money positioning.
Gold
Silver
02 · Exchange spreads
LBMA vs COMEX vs Shanghai.
Persistent premiums signal physical demand outpacing paper settlement.
03 · Paper vs physical
How many paper claims per real ounce?
When the ratio is high, delivery squeezes become possible. Silver is at extreme levels.
COMEX gold paper claims
542,000 contracts
= 54.2M oz notional
COMEX gold registered
17.2M oz
Deliverable against contracts
Paper-to-physical ratio
3.2:1
Each registered ounce backs 3.2 paper claims
COMEX silver paper claims
158,000 contracts
= 790M oz notional
COMEX silver registered
72M oz
Down 65% from 2021 peak
Silver paper-to-physical
11:1
Extreme leverage — delivery squeeze risk
04 · Lease rates
What it costs to borrow metal.
Rising lease rates signal physical tightness. Silver lease rates spiking is a precursor to delivery stress.
Gold
1-Month
0.18%
3-Month
0.42%
12-Month
1.05%
Normal — no stress
Silver
1-Month
2.85%
3-Month
3.40%
12-Month
4.10%
Elevated — tightness emerging
The surface lies