Full Signal Archive · April 2026
All 15 Signals
Every signal in the matrix — active, watching, and dormant. The full picture of what drives gold and silver.
DXY < 98
Trigger: Dollar breaks 98
War premium exiting or dollar weakness becomes structural.
DXY > 101
Trigger: Dollar above 101
War escalating or Fed turning hawkish.
10Y yield < 4.0%
Trigger: Treasury yields break 4.0%
Rate cuts being priced in. Real yields falling. Strong buy for gold.
10Y yield > 4.5%
Trigger: Yields above 4.5%
Real yields too high for gold to compete.
Oil < $80 sustained
Trigger: Brent below $80 for weeks
Rate-cut path reopens within 2–4 weeks.
Oil > $110
Trigger: Brent above $110
Stagflation — bearish near-term, ultra-bullish long-term.
Ceasefire announced
Trigger: Formal ceasefire
Activates Thesis E — the Peace Dividend Trade.
BOJ rate hike
Trigger: BOJ raises above 0.75%
Each 25bp = DXY −0.8 to −1.2% direct, −2 to −4% with carry unwind.
Fed signals rate cut
Trigger: Dot plot or Powell signal
Strongest possible buy signal for gold and silver.
Warsh confirmed
Trigger: Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair
Breaks the 4D Chess thesis. Watch his first statements for hawk/dove bias.
Gold-Silver ratio > 75
Trigger: Ratio crosses 75
Silver very cheap vs gold. Historical mean reversion opportunity.
Shanghai premium > $10/oz
Trigger: SGE premium over LBMA
Physical demand diverging from paper. Structural buyer.
COMEX silver < 80M oz
Trigger: Registered silver drawdown
Delivery stress rising. Below 50M oz = critical.
DXY + Gold both rising
Trigger: Simultaneous rise (rare)
Rarest structural signal. CB buying overwhelms the dollar-gold inverse.
Reserve Reallocation active
Trigger: CBs dumping Treasuries for gold
Underpins Thesis G. Regime change, not a cycle. April 2026: ACTIVE and ACCELERATING.
Reference table
Signal matrix at a glance.
| # | Signal | Trigger | Status | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | DXY < 98 | Dollar breaks 98 | watch | bullish |
| 02 | DXY > 101 | Dollar above 101 | dormant | bearish |
| 03 | 10Y yield < 4.0% | Treasury yields break 4.0% | watch | bullish |
| 04 | 10Y yield > 4.5% | Yields above 4.5% | dormant | bearish |
| 05 | Oil < $80 sustained | Brent below $80 for weeks | dormant | bullish |
| 06 | Oil > $110 | Brent above $110 | dormant | mixed |
| 07 | Ceasefire announced | Formal ceasefire | watch | bullish |
| 08 | BOJ rate hike | BOJ raises above 0.75% | active | bullish |
| 09 | Fed signals rate cut | Dot plot or Powell signal | watch | bullish |
| 10 | Warsh confirmed | Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair | dormant | bearish |
| 11 | Gold-Silver ratio > 75 | Ratio crosses 75 | active | bullish |
| 12 | Shanghai premium > $10/oz | SGE premium over LBMA | active | bullish |
| 13 | COMEX silver < 80M oz | Registered silver drawdown | active | bullish |
| 14 | DXY + Gold both rising | Simultaneous rise (rare) | active | bullish |
| 15 | Reserve Reallocation active | CBs dumping Treasuries for gold | active | bullish |